Lower-end, I'd say perhaps $220 million, and higher-end should be perhaps $280 million. I'm betting on a finish somewhere between $240-260 million worldwide, give or take a few million. And in the end, the resulting picture is one that at best will see a modest improvement that still probably won't get close to blockbuster levels, but at worst could wind up swimming in red ink. But it's telling that the performance range is realistically so broad - this is a franchise that didn't start out with true tentpole performance numbers, but rather with just enough potential and hope that it was worth a mid-range investment to see where things go. That's worst-case, obviously, and I don't expect anything like that to happen. Then again, audiences have demonstrated a disinterest in critical bashing on a few notable occasions this year, so we'll see if this film benefits from a similar disparity between film reviews and audience reactions.
Whether it accomplishes that, though, will depend on maintaining legs like the first film's impressive 5+x multiplier, and the currently negative critical reception for the sequel might prove an obstacle. That would be about 33% higher than Jack Reacher opened in 2012 during the holiday season, and if the final North American box office reflected the same sort of overall boost, we'd be looking at a total of perhaps $100+ million at home. Thursday night receipts of $1.32 million suggest it's going to achieve that goal, at least if it can build upon a likely domestic opening weekend cume in the $20 million range. Never Go Back indeed managed to repeat the $60 million budgeting of the first film, so if it can build upon the success of the first film then we will certainly see a third film in the series. Not a blockbuster performance on par with Cruise's phenomenal Mission: Impossible series, but healthy enough to set up a new franchise if costs could be kept modest and the box office performance could be improved for the follow-ups.
#JACK REACHER NEVER GO BACK RENT PLUS#
The first film took $218 million worldwide off of a $60 million budget, plus at least another $50+ million in global home entertainment sales and rentals to date.
First, let's get the obvious financial assessment out of the way.
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